Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $133,521$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,704.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(123,704.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,359$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,030.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,030.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,090$ on 2020-05-23

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $155,686$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150,021.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(150,021.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,308$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(657 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,257.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,257.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,776$ on 2020-05-23

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,464$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(37.7 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71,006.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 99.4)}}\) (asimptote \(71,006.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $148$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.55 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{243.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(243.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,569$ on 2020-05-23

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,712$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,492.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,492.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $279$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(55.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{269.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 27.1)}}\) (asimptote \(269.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,343$ on 2020-05-23

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,704$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(443 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 78.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,538.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $244$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,965$ on 2020-05-23

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $927$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(220 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{898.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(898.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(6.83 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $316$ on 2020-05-23

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,161$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,284.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 66.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107,284.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $379$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(35.6 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{525.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(525.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,546$ on 2020-05-23

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,777$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,843.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(14,843.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $863$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{904.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(904.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,737$ on 2020-05-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Korea, South recovered 91%
Japan recovered 79%
Israel recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 58%
Georgia recovered 44%
Singapore recovered 17%
United Arab Emirates recovered 5%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,190$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,586.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,586.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $266$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(71.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(262.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $711$ on 2020-05-23

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,536$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,532.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,532.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $808$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(47 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(905.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,484$ on 2020-05-23

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $728$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(79.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{745.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(745.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $207$ on 2020-05-23

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,068$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(179 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,029.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 94.3)}}\) (asimptote \(32,029.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-05-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(25.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,163$ on 2020-05-23